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Trend Analysis of Export Commodity Prices in Ghana: A Case Study in Cocoa Transport

 

Abstract

The exports of many African countries are concentrated in a relatively small number of primary commodities, commodities whose world prices are extremely volatile, and which, in many cases are now at historically low levels. The descriptive statistics of prices of Export commodities showed a mean of 1806.2 Ghana cadies, maximum and minimum values of 2378.00 and 1406.00 Ghana cedi respectively. Prices of Export commodities for the entire period was positively skewed and platykurtic in nature with a coefficient of variation (CV), 15.4 percent. The unit roots test showed that the prices do not fluctuate with constant variation about a fixed point given an indication of a non-stationary series. The ACF plot also shows a slow decay and the PACF plot have a significant spike at lag 1. The non-stationarity of the series was further confirmed by the p-values of KPSS and ADF test, as their p values were compared with alpha value of 0.05.

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