Evaluating the impact of large-scale cultivation of biofuel feedstock on food security in Ghana: A modelling study

Authors

  • Isaac Ansah Course Tutor, Department of Mathematics, Science and ICT, College of Distance Education, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast – Ghana
  • John P. Ansah Assistant Professor, Duke-NUS Medical School, Health Services and Systems Research, Singapore

Keywords:

Biofuel, food security, system dynamics, simulation modelling, Ghana

Abstract

It is expected that by 2030, 20% of fuel consumption in Ghana will be substituted by biodiesel, and 30% of kerosene usage will be substituted with jatropha oil. Given the continued attempt to replace fossil fuel with biofuel, it is vital to assess the impact large-scale biofuel feedstock production for biofuel will have on food security. Thus, this research aims to develop a dynamic simulations model to project the impact of large-scale cultivation of biofuel feedstock on food security in Ghana. A simulation model on the dynamic interrelationships between biofuel and food production was developed, using the systems science methodology of system dynamics. The result suggests that if oil price increases significantly, biofuel demand increases, and farmers respond by transferring cropland for biofuel production, crop production, and crop production per capita is projected to decrease significantly, raising food security concerns. However, suppose oil prices increase significantly and demand for biofuel increases, but farmers respond to the increase in biofuel demand by cultivating new land for biofuel production to ensure that food supply remains unchanged, in that case, itwill result in adequate crop production. However, relative food prices will increase due to the opportunity cost of food production. In conclusion, policies that incentivize farmers to respond to increased demand for biofuel feedstock by developing unused land instead of converting food cropland for biofuel should be explored to avert the undesirable outcome of food insecurity due to increased demand for biofuel feedstock.

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Published

2022-03-31

How to Cite

Ansah, I. ., & Ansah, J. P. . (2022). Evaluating the impact of large-scale cultivation of biofuel feedstock on food security in Ghana: A modelling study. ADRRI Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences, 6(1 (5), January 2022-March,2022), 1-19. Retrieved from https://journals.adrri.org/index.php/adrrijafs/article/view/858